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Macau Gaming Weekly:Very favourable luck lifted run rate

Run rate held up, helped mainly by luck: The first 15 days of October yieldedMOP13.8bn in gross gaming revenue (GGR). This implies an average daily run rate(ADR) of MOP757m/day for the past week, compared with MOP1,063m/day duringGolden Week and MOP492m/day for the same week last year. Gaming revenue did notslow down as much as historically, given the high win rate and weaker-than-expectedGolden Week for VIP. But volume saw some pick up into the weekend despite anotherNo. 8 Typhoon on Sunday. Luck continued to play a role in lifting ADR. Month-to-date VIPwin rate edged up slightly to 3.4-3.6% vs 3.3-3.5% the week before. By segment, m-t-dVIP is tracking +25% y-o-y while mass was 5-6% y-o-y. By operators, MGM and Melcoseemed to have gained share from Wynn and SJM, based on our observation.

    October to track +13% to +16% y-o-y: Factoring better-than-expected numbers lastweek, we now expect the full month to finish between MOP24.7-25.3bn. This implies anADR of MOP680-720m/day for the rest of the month.

    Melco and Galaxy expected to top the chart for 3Q17 results: 3Q17 results will startcoming out next week or so. While we expect some good results, we think the market willonly respond more favourably if we are likely to see a pickup in growth rate in 4Q17.

    Trading at 14x FY18e EV/EBITDA on average, we see limited further re-ratingopportunities in the near term for our Macau coverage names. We recommend investorsstay selective. We continue to favour Galaxy (27 HK, CMP HKD53.30, TP 59.10) andMelco Resorts (MLCO US, CMP USD23.70, TP USD30.50), both rated Buys, for theirundemanding valuation, strong operating records, and good supply pipelines.

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